Bracketology: just flip a damn coin

Cal Grondahl. The Utah Standard.

I've never really followed college basketball until it came time for me to fill out my March Madness brackets, yet somehow I usually predicted the winners just as well if not better than many of my friends who spent the whole season following a team or conference. Instead of following the sport, I would research the teams' statistics just before the tournament began. The defense statistics would be the first numbers I would use to pick which team would win and lose. In the past this strategy served me fairly well even though my bracket has been pathetic in some years; then again, all of my friends' brackets tend to fall apart certain years. This year, however, I followed a bit of the Big East in late February and early March in addition to my statistic research. After this additional research, I chose Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and San Diego State for my Final Four. This was the bracket I entered into a pool with friends, but it wasn't my 'gut feeling' bracket. I honestly didn't think Pittsburgh was going to make it past the Sweet Sixteen, so I created another bracket that had Wisconsin going to the Final Four along with Kansas, UNC, and Duke. As it turns out, my 'gut feeling' bracket has done much, much better than the one I entered into the pool. For instance, in this bracket I picked the Florida State upset over Notre Dame, and thus far this bracket has been slightly luckier. However, this entire month has been crazy for college basketball. Anyone who chose Butler for the Final Four is either a genius, an idiot, or (more likely) just plain lucky. Before the tournament began, I used a coin to help me fill out another bracket. For every close game, I would flip a coin to tell me which team would win. In this bracket I chose Butler upsetting Pittsburgh (which happened) and then losing in the Elite Eight (which didn't happen). It's a bit frustrating for me that flipping a coin gave me a bracket better than the one I entered into a pool (though my gut feeling bracket is still doing better). I think all of this shows that picking a good bracket is more about luck than research.